The rule of law and the strength of our institutions is what is supposed to help make us a civilised society. Developing a set of guardrails for responsible budgeting was perceived to be a missing link which was addressed by the Charter of Budget Responsibility Bill 2007.

The then Premier, in his second reading speech to the House of assembly on 18th April 2007 explained it as follows:

“The bill before the House today recognises that a credible fiscal strategy is a crucial component of the Tasmanian Government's financial framework. It enshrines in legislation a requirement for the government of the day to prepare, publish and report progress against a fiscal strategy statement in accordance with the principles of sound fiscal management. Importantly, the bill also includes a requirement for opposition parties in the House of Assembly to publicly announce a fiscal strategy statement prior to a State election. Clearly this will provide essential information to the Tasmanian community in assessing the fiscal policies and election commitments of the Government and opposition parties. In recent years the Liberal Opposition has rejected repeated calls to prepare a fiscal strategy outlining its financial policy. Despite these calls, the Liberal Party has refused to prepare any alternative fiscal strategy. This legislation will provide a clear signal to all opposition parties that the community expects them to detail their fiscal plan “and policies. “

“The third element of the bill relates to the preparation of a pre-election fiscal outlook report. This will be an independent report prepared by the Secretary of the Department of Treasury and Finance. The pre-election fiscal outlook report will provide updated information of the fiscal outlook of the State prior to a House of Assembly election. This report will be released publicly to ensure that the Tasmanian community is fully aware of the State's financial position at this time. The pre-election fiscal outlook report will only be prepared if the information it contained would be materially different from the most recent information published in the State budget papers or mid-year financial report. In keeping with the independent nature of the report, the Secretary of the Department of Treasury and Finance will make a judgment about the need to prepare a pre-election fiscal outlook report.”

“This bill puts all future governments on notice that the Tasmanian community expects them to manage the State’s finances in a proper and prudent manner. This Government has worked hard to put Tasmania’s financial position on a sound footing. This legislation will play an important part in making sure that the Tasmanian Government’s financial position never returns to the dark days of the 1990s.

This bill aims to improve government accountability to both the Parliament and the community by improving the transparency of fiscal policy and financial management within the State. No longer will political parties be able to avoid preparing proper fiscal strategies or make endless election promises without being clear about the impact on Tasmania's financial position.

Once enacted, these reforms will ensure the community receives the highest levels of accountability, transparency, responsibility and governance from their elected representatives.

I commend the bill to the House.”

If one overlooks the hypocrisy which is never far away when one party berates an opposition for its failings the Bill set out guidelines for future budgeting. All parties supported the measure.

In short, the (now) Act requires the Treasury Secretary to issue a pre-election outlook report (PEFO) reaffirming or updating the latest budgets and for all parties to have fiscal strategies.

In the case of PEFO I had believed that the 2025/26 Budget introduced to Parliament, but since withdrawn when Parliament was prorogued, would be the set of financials to be reviewed by PEFO, but this is not the case. It is last year’s budget for 2024/25 and the 2024/25 Revised Estimates Report (RER) issued in Feb 2025 which will be reviewed and updated by PEFO. The 2025/26 Budget has been assigned to the dustbin already.

What will be interesting will be how the Treasury Secretary addresses the very real omissions from the RER which I identified - https://ruthforrest.com.au/opinion/1338-obscured-spending-decisions-undermine-public-trust-in-the-budget-figures particularly missing health spending from the forward estimates which meant cash deficits were understated by over $1 billion. Setting out omissions previously overlooked plus an update on the myriad of risks is what PEFO should tell us.

PEFO should consider not just the General Government Sector but should also the Total State Sector which includes all the Public Non Financial Corporations (PNFC’s) particularly as our government businesses are where so much debt sits and real financial challenges are occurring – think TTLine for example. The Act may need amending to ensure PEFO tells the whole story.

The PEFO is due to be released today 25th June 2025.

The now abandoned 25/26 Budget did contain an updated fiscal strategy from the Government. We have no idea whether this is the updated fiscal strategy the government is required to lodge with Treasury. There were many who thought the Premier with a copy of a 2030 STRONG PLAN under his arm was just a PR prop for photo ops, but it may be the Premier fulfilling his statutory requirement to make public any revised fiscal strategy. We don’t know for sure.

In any event it doesn’t comply with the Act. The fiscal objectives and targets the 2025/26 budget hoped to achieve can in no may be construed as adhering to sound fiscal management.

Opposition parties have 15 days from the dissolution of Parliament to make public a fiscal strategy, with objectives and targets over a four-year period. With a ‘day’ meaning a ‘business day’, July 2nd is the deadline. By that time pre-poll voting will have commenced.

An Act intended to provide guidance for sensible policy making has been abused and ignored by major parties to the point where no one cares. There are no penalties for non-compliance. Only voters can do that.

But if the majors conspire to keep voters in the dark with their masonic secrecy how do voters discover what’s happening.

Can it get more ridiculous?

We’ll know once we see the PEFO.