Failures of governance are almost always intertwined with poor culture and both tend to have deep roots.

Tasmania's Premier Jeremy Rockliff is, and has been often referred to as, 'a good bloke' and at a personal level he is. However, this state needs more than a 'good bloke' leading our state and governing for all Tasmanians.

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Time to be honest about the challenges and work together, before it's too late. The 2024-25 Tasmanian state budget is a catastrophe.

There is no plan to stop debt servicing costs eating up more and more of revenue each year. By 2027-28 almost 10c in every dollar of revenue will be devoted to debt servicing.

Which leaves less and less each year to provide services.

Even with debt servicing costs, operating expenses are projected to fall over the forward estimates.

Exclude them and adjust for inflation and the fall in real terms is 13 per cent.

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Political parties continue their misinformation campaigns rather than honestly discussing our financial problems, writes Ruth Forrest

The gravity of the state's perilous fiscal position, as forensically detailed by Saul Eslake in his recent report, was rather predictably matched by the dismissiveness by major parties of the recommendation to raise more revenue from our own sources.

Mr Eslake spelt out what most of us knew, or at least strongly suspected, that we're spending more than we're receiving and that an increasing share of what we're spending are debt servicing costs and amounts to settle past accumulated liabilities rather than on current services. In real terms spending on current services is falling.

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Denial of budget reality is no longer an option for Tasmania.

The government last week released the Preliminary Outcome Report for the 2023-24 year, revealing the latest on the state's finances. On Monday of this week, leading economist Saul Eslake released his long anticipated review into the same subject.

First the good news on the 2023-24 year.

Revenue was $500m higher. Despite reduced GST, specific purpose grants were higher, as was own-source taxation and dividends from government businesses.

It was pleasing to see more own source revenue as that's what we need if we are to keep providing services that people expect, need and deserve.

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The day of reckoning is looming.

The report by respected economist Saul Eslake into the state of the state's finances, a condition of Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) agreement with the minority Liberal government following the March election, will be made public before the 2024/25 state budget on September 12.

Ever since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, all parties have been in self-denial about our perilous fiscal position, in part because they risked losing office should they admit to the enormity of the challenge without offering solutions.

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Changing the GST rules to get Tasmania a 'better deal' might just be killing the goose that lays the golden eggs

Undermining the GST system is not in Tasmania's interest, writes Ruth Forrest.

Most people have heard the fable written by Aesop about killing the goose that lays golden eggs.

Perhaps not Treasurer Michael Ferguson?

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There is a need to take a genuine look at the big picture for our future when it comes to state and federal budgets.

Preparing the groundwork for what is likely to be an austere 2024-25 Tasmanian budget in four months' time, Treasurer Michael Ferguson reportedly accused federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers of leaving Tasmania off the fiscal map, saying state requests for funding of the Launceston General Hospital Masterplan, the Greater South East Irrigation Scheme, and the Burnie court complex had fallen on deaf ears.

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THE scourge of family violence and violence against women is at the forefront of news coverage. The horrific statistics and lived reality for many women and their families in our community is not news.

The rates of violence against women and children is a national disgrace and requires a national response. Our national leaders have recognised the need for a united, well resourced and integrated approach to addressing this crisis.

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Instead of appeasing its new partners, the government would be better served by a budget office,

Let's hope Premier Jeremy Rockliff has more success in achieving a workable parliament than all the king's horses and men had trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together.

The major problem with the Liberals' 2030 Strong Plan for Tasmania's Future, as with all promises made at election time, is our current situation. As the old Irish joke goes, "if I were you, I wouldn't start from here".

Unfortunately, we are where we are. We currently spend $1.07 for every $1 that comes through the door.

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Members of the community may wish to understand the nature of the agreement signed between the three newly elected members of the Jacquie Lambie Network (JLN) and the Premier.  For those of you who are interested in reading the agreement it can be viewed here:

Confidence and Stability Agreement

I have some serious concerns regarding a number of points in the agreement, and the ability of the members of the JLN to effectively participate in the work of Parliament to ensure the transparency and accountability of the government and Ministers.

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The state is facing a huge fiscal problem and it seems that neither of the major parties is prepared to address it, writes Ruth Forrest

One of the classic strategies from Donald Trump's playbook is to accuse your opponent of having the same vulnerabilities as you have. It helps neutralise the issue.

Treasurer Michael Ferguson has accused Labor of believing in "a magic money tree". Not without reason I might add. But the current government is equally vulnerable on that score. We have no idea how the government plans to overcome the fiscal problems it has helped create.

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If you’re having trouble understanding the electricity policies of parties as they vie for your vote, you’re not alone. Being Chair of three inquiries looking at various aspect of the electricity industry, from the termination of the Basslink agreements to electricity pricing and broader energy related matters including the Marinus deal, all placed on the backburner when the election was called, has given me some appreciation of the challenges ahead.

But the proposed solutions have left me bemused and bewildered. With no shortage of false facts and dubious claims, trying to understand how we Tasmanians will be better off is difficult.

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On the day the House of Assembly was dissolved to precipitate the March 23rd election, over a year ahead of the next election date committed to by the Premier, the Government released a Revised Estimates Report (RER) updating the 2023/24 Budget.

That the Premier has chosen to ask the people of Tasmania over a year earlier than planned, for a vote of confidence in his government, when all indicators in the RER confirm a dire situation for the State, suggests worse is to come.

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The assessment of state government debt makes for some uncomfortable reading, writes Ruth Forrest

School is out and the 'kids' our House of Assembly representatives - have been sent home earlier than expected. The classroom was becoming too unruly. No work was getting done.

The end of term report issued on the last day of school reveals the kids were failing to meet required standards and were in danger of joining the growing cohort of children not reaching expected milestones.

The Revised Estimates Report (RER) for 2023-24 was issued the day the House of Assembly was dismissed as a prelude to the March 23 election.

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Where there’s smoke there’s fire. All it will take is another wind shift and an early State election will be upon us. Retired warriors have been recruited to rejoin the battle so there’ll be plenty of politics, finger pointing and photoshopped views of opponents’ past achievements or lack thereof.

But what of actual policies?

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The start of a new school year is eagerly anticipated by many, but not all. Children learn in different ways therefore our educational systems must be adaptable and flexible. Access to, and engagement with education has the power to be life-changing and all students need to feel safe, supported and welcome in their learning environment. It can be a path out of poverty, breaking cycles of intergenerational disadvantage and unemployment. Education empowers children and young people to make informed decisions and shape the future.

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My first Electorate Update for 2024 is available here

ALL state governments are facing sustainability problems.

Tasmania is no exception.

The instability of the government increases the unwillingness to face reality.

Rather than have honest discussions about our plight our political leaders prefer Plan B, create a distraction and pretend it's part of the solution. 

You won't find a better diversion than talk about a Tasmanian AFL side requiring a stadium on a contentious site.

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Tasmanians have a right to know all the facts on energy project, writes Ruth Forrest.

As usual, when it comes to the Marinus Link project there are more questions than answers.

Barely four weeks ago Premier Jeremy Rockliff drew a line in the sand and told his federal counterparts Tasmania couldn't afford two Marinus cables, certainly not "at any price".

Four weeks later how about one cable?

Are we to believe that in less than a month the number-crunchers have revised all their plans, budgets and models and decided one cable will do the job? Exactly what job is that?

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Constantly changing the story about why we need Marinus does little to make it sound convincing or credible.

In 2016 a single cable was proposed as a back-up after Basslink failed. That sounded reasonable.

Before any further details arrived, someone figured out if the Australian Government were going to pay, why stop at one, why not two cables. Why not double our renewable energy production, send it northwards, help the nation, save the planet and make a motza.

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