As crazy as it may sound the proposed Marinus project has some unfortunate similarities with the stadium project.

The AFL decided the AFL Devils needed a roofed stadium at Macquarie Point in order to field a successful team. The Premier agreed and signed on the dotted line without consulting anyone and before any plans were drawn up, costings done or funds arranged.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) decided a new interconnector might be a good idea for the future of the National Electricity Market (NEM). If Tasmania legislated a renewable action target, Marinus would become an actionable project. Tasmania signed up in 2020 without any idea how much it would cost or who would fund the construction.

The only certainty was that consumers would pay operating costs and service any loans via higher transmission charges. How much of that would be paid by Tasmanian consumers was yet to be decided. It was a leap of faith into a black hole and a reason I personally did not support that legislation.

It has since become a little confusing. Potential new generation facilities are allegedly waiting for the interconnector, whilst even with a new interconnector there is no certainty new generators won’t require additional subsidies.

The chicken and the egg are squabbling about who should go first.

The only new generation proposed in the past few years, the Midlands solar farm which will contribute three to four per cent of our needs required a favourable contract with Hydro Tasmania before proceeding. Nevertheless, it’s a welcomed project despite commercial in confidence provisions preventing the public from knowing the full details.

Meanwhile a decision whether or not to formally proceed with Marinus is about to occur. The developer Marinus Link P/L (MLPL) was originally 100 per cent owned by TasNetworks (TN) which is 100 per cent owned by us, the people of Tasmania.

However, it was deemed too big a project with too many risks for TN and the ownership was radically altered, with the Tasmania government taking up a 17.7 per cent share, the Commonwealth a 50 per cent share, with the balance owned by the Victorian government. The Tas government borrowed over $100 million to compensate, or ‘make-good’, TN for its interest and will need to contribute more although most funds will be borrowed by MLPL from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation rather than raised via additional equity contributions from shareholders.

The Board of MLPL will make a Final Investment Decision (FID) this month. Individual shareholders will then decide what each wants to do and then convene a shareholders meeting to accept or reject what the Board of MLPL have recommended.

The FID will occur during the caretaker period of this Parliament. The way forward will largely be determined by the Whole-of-State business case currently, viewed by the Treasurer and sitting in the in-tray of the Secretary to the Treasury. It should be released forthwith as part of his obligations under the Pre-Election Financial Outlook (PEFO) provisions, to provide information of which he is aware which will likely impact the future fiscal position of the State.

Another crucial thing has happened which may well impact the likely consumer benefits from Marinus. Currently APA the new owners of Basslink are applying to have the existing cable reclassified as a regulated link. It currently operates as an unregulated link exclusively used by Hydro Tasmania. As a regulated link it will become more openly available but consumers at either end will have to pay extra to cover the regulated fee. To date the Australian

Energy Regulator (AER) is not convinced there will be enough consumer benefits to justify saddling consumers with extra charges.

Which pre-empts the crucial question for Marinus: How will an interconnector which costs five times as much as Basslink yet is only 50 per cent bigger, be able to provide sufficient benefits to consumers greater than the likely cost, when Basslink can’t?

Have we been misled about the likely benefits of Marinus?

Whilst Tasmania’s equity share in MLPL is only 17.7 per cent we now know Tasmanians will have to pay 27.6 per cent of any Marinus fees. With a cost tag of $4 billion and rising the additional fees will need to be carefully compared to the possible benefits.

In addition, consumers will have to pay extra to service the $800+ million needed by TN for the North West Transmission Development (NWTD). The business case should also shed some light on this sub-project.

There is so much happening in the electricity space, with changing consumption patterns, greater variability of hydro inflows and production which directly impacts Hydro Tasmania, and the fiscal position of the general government, that I might need to revisit electricity in a subsequent pre- election update.