QWN – Comparison of Budget Estimates

Legislative Council, Thursday 19 March 2026

Ms FORREST question to LEADER for the GOVERNMENT in the LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, Ms RATTRAY

With regard to the state budgets and forward estimates over the last 10 years:

1.  Please provide a comparison of the original budget estimates to the actual outcome over the last 10 years.
2.  Based on the answer to question 1, please provide a calculation of a confidence interval for the current budget using historic comparisons.

Answer:

1.  On average over the last 10 years from 2015-16 to 2024-25, Actual Revenue has been 5.1 per cent above the Budgeted Revenue. This has been impacted by significant one-off events including COVID-19 and the 2016-17 return of the Mersey Community Hospital for which Tasmania received a one-off payment from the Australian Government of $730 million and overall revenue exceeded the Budget by 16 per cent.
2. On average over the last 10 years from 2015-16 to 2024-25, Actual Expenses has been 4.1 per cent above the Budgeted Expenses. This has been significantly impacted by one‑off events including COVID-19 and the 2023-24 recognition of the Provision for Claims related to Child Sexual Abuse in State Care, an additional expense of $571.2 million in that year.
3. The variation in the Net Operating Balance outcome reflects changes from Budget in both Revenue and Expenses.
4. The variation in the Fiscal Balance outcome reflects changes from Budget in Net Operating Balance and the investment in infrastructure and other assets.
5.  Using historic comparisons for the calculation of a confidence interval includes the recognition of the potential for significant unknown future events, as already outlined, which substantially increases the range of uncertainty.
6. For the Net Operating Balance, while on average the actual outcome has been $16.3 million better than the Budget, the sample standard deviation is around $600 million. The confidence interval at 90 per cent for a deficit of $1 008 million in the 2025-26 Budget is a range from a deficit as low as $3.4 million to as high as $1 980 million. The Revised Estimate for 2025-26 released on 12 February is for a Net Operating Balance deficit of $917 million, well within this range.
7. For the Fiscal Balance, while on average the actual outcome has been $248.7 million better than the Budget, the sample standard deviation is around $578 million. The confidence interval at 90 per cent for a Fiscal Balance deficit of $1 352 million is a range from a deficit of $152.5 million to a deficit of $2.1 billion. The Revised Estimate Fiscal Balance of $1 222.7 million is well within this range.