This final chapter looks to the future and the challenges we must be open and honest about. It looks to the future of our incredibly important government business, Hydro Tasmania and the State of Tasmania. it focuses on the critical period we are facing and what we as Tasmanians need to ensure the longevity of Hydro Tasmania and the economic future of the state.
I thank John Lawrence for his assistance in preparing this information, his attention to detail and research over many years as we have worked together to better understand one of the most complex areas that impact our state, economically and functionally.
Chapter 18: Conclusion – A Century of Hydro, and the Next One
For more than a century, Hydro Tasmania has shaped the state’s identity. It powered the industrialisation of the North‑West, electrified remote towns, stabilised the Budget, and gave Tasmania something rare among small jurisdictions: a sense of control over its own destiny. Hydro was never just an energy business. It was a symbol of what Tasmania could achieve when it invested in itself.
That legacy still matters. It is why Tasmanians instinctively trust Hydro. It is why the public expects competence, transparency, and honesty from the organisation that has been part of the state’s fabric for generations. And it is why the current moment feels so important. The numbers we have reconstructed do not diminish Hydro’s history. They illuminate the challenges of its future.
Hydro is not failing. It is not collapsing. It is not beyond repair. But it is entering a new century with a financial position that is weaker, more leveraged, and more exposed than most Tasmanians realise. The operating engine has slowed. The balance sheet has absorbed more risk. Cash flow has tightened. And the public narrative has drifted away from the reality visible in the accounts.
This is not a crisis. It is a crossroads.
Tasmania now faces a choice about what it wants Hydro to be in the decades ahead. A commercial generator competing in a volatile market? A system security provider tasked with providing firming to the mainland? A fiscal asset expected to deliver hundreds of millions in dividends? A policy instrument used to advance the state’s renewable ambitions? Hydro can play more than one of these roles, but it cannot play all of them without tension. The state must decide which role matters most – and structure Hydro accordingly.
The other choice is about governance. The WoSBC redactions, the opaque annual report, the refusal to disclose basic financial information, and the public repetition of myths about negative Victorian prices are not isolated incidents. They are signs of a system that has become too comfortable with secrecy. Hydro’s future, and Tasmania’s fiscal future, cannot be built on selective disclosure and optimistic assumptions. They require transparency, scrutiny, and a willingness to confront uncomfortable facts.
The final choice is about honesty. Hydro’s challenges are manageable if they are acknowledged early. They become dangerous only when they are ignored. The loss of IRRs, the structural LGC losses, the rising debt, the exposure to drought, and the tightening liquidity are not insurmountable problems. They are problems that require clear eyes, steady hands, and a commitment to telling the truth – even when the truth is inconvenient.
Hydro’s first century was defined by engineering ambition, public purpose, and a belief that Tasmania could build something extraordinary. The next century will be defined by whether the state can bring the same ambition and purpose to its governance, its transparency, and its financial stewardship.
This 18‑part explainer has not been an argument against Hydro. It has been an argument for it and for its future. It is an argument for its importance, its potential, and its central role in Tasmania’s future. But potential is not a substitute for clarity. And history is not a substitute for accountability.
Hydro remains one of Tasmania’s greatest assets. The task now is to ensure it remains one of Tasmania’s greatest strengths.
The numbers have spoken. The future depends on whether we listen.